Archive for September, 2009

House of Representatives votes to defund ACORN

Author: Rory B. Bellows

It is about damn time!

btw, New Jersey Democratic Representatives Donald Payne, Rush Holt, Bill Pascrell, Frank Pallone and Alberto Sires all voted to continue funding a group that wanted to help set up brothels stocked with underage girls. Remember, this is the party of women.

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Major worries for Christie

Author: Rory B. Bellows

As I noted yesterday, Christie has ran an awful campaign and has left the election up to fate. Instead of defining himself he has stayed silent, said nothing and sat on an ever shrinking lead.

Alan Steinberg, former Bush Administration official, sees some ominous signs in the Monmouth Poll. Steingberg shrewdly notices that Corzine actually leads Christie in terms of likely voters by 1 point. While this lead is statistically insignificant, Christie led by 6 points in the last poll. That is a lead that WAS statistically significant.

Corzine has personal wealth and union money to buy the necessary levels of turnout. I have repeatedly warned in this space that Christie was running a dreadful campaign and that the numbers would stabilize once Labor Day rolled around and the Corzine money kicked in. I fear that it is now too late for Christie to do much of anything and he needs to do everything in his power to boost turnout. He needs to have his appointed state party chair hold a vote and have the state GOP accept the national GOP platform. He needs Steve Lonegan out on the stump. And he needs to come up with something, anything, on property taxes in order to rally the troops around.

Christie is still a slight favorite in this election but each day more and more voters are leaving him because he has offered them nothing. Now he is going to have to a win a turnout election where he is at a massive disadvantage in terms of party ID.

Is there a campaign going on?

Author: Rory B. Bellows

You would not know it if you were trying to follow the New Jersey Gubernatorial election and it is starting to hurt Chris Christie in the polls. The latest Monmouth University Poll shows Christie’s lead shrinking fom 14 points in their last survey to 8 points. The poll has Christie at 47%. This is in line with all other recent polls that all show Christie’s lead dwindling and Christie no longer polling at or above the magical 50% mark. Other worrisome signs in this poll are the fact that independents are becoming increasingly skeptical of Christie and that Corzine’s base is begining to rally around him.

The good news for Christie is that Jon Corzine’s highwater mark in any poll taken is 42%. Basically this is the unlosebale election that Chris Christie is doing his damndest to lose. The polls show property taxes are the key issue yet in a recent Christie speech, he declined to say how he would go about cutting taxes or by how much. Campaigns need to be distilled in short slogans that are easy to stick on bumper stickers. If people cannot understand what your campaign is about, they will not for you because they tend to stick with the devil they know as opposed to the devil they do not. A recent example of this was the 2004 John Kerry Campaign or the 2008 McCain Campaign. What were they running on? You knew George Bush was about sticking iwth him because you knew where he stood and Obama had the whole hope and change thing going on. What is the mission statement of the Christie Campaign?

What is frustrating is having to keep writing the same post over and over again. There is nothing to analyze in this campaign because Christie is playing into the Corzine trap of keeping it as the campaign about nothing. All Corzine has to do is raise doubts about his challenger. This strategy is even more effective in a race with a third party. In a state with a huge democrat registration advantage, there is an outlet for disaffected Democrats to register a protest vote. If Corzine can keep Christie’s polling numbers in the mid 40s, anything can happen on election day, especially once the unions and Corzine use their massive resources to get “street” money out there.

It is depressing following this election. if you read any national outlet that covers politics, the only time the NJ Gov. race gets mentioned is when a new poll comes out. On the other hand, their are constant stories about the Bod McDonnell v. Creigh Deeds matchup in the other off year election for Virgina’s Governorship. Part of this is because the Washington Post has decided that Creigh Deeds must be elected at all costs, but whenever the Post runs a story attacking McDonnell for his socially conservative views, McDonnell responds by running an ad or giving a speech about transportation and jobs.

There is still time to correct a deteriorating situation but Christie has been running for Governor for eight or nine months no and no core message has been developed. That means this election is in the hands of voters, who naturally tilt left, who do not like Jon Corzine but have no idea what his challenger stands for.


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