Archive for the 'Gubernatorial Election 2009' Category

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Some good news for Christie?

Author: Rory B. Bellows

A new Public Policy Report poll out tomorrow shows daggett’s negatives soaring and the number one reason people will come out to vote is to vote against someone. That can’t be good news for Corzine.

Absurd Analysis of the NJ Gov Race

Author: Rory B. Bellows

Leftist House Organ The Nation has a piece by someone named John Nichols that claims Jon Corzine got back in the race because he turned sharply left and Christie ran too hard to the right by catering to the “Religious Right”.

The Nation is free to have their own radical left opinions but they are not free to make up their own facts. The fact of the matter is Christie has not catered to the “Religious Right”. If Christie was so interested in pandering to the religious right, why did he name a pro-choice woman as his running mate? The simple fact is that he has not catered to anyone at all. He has not even run a campaign of any note and does not even have a message as to why he should be elected governor other than that he is not Jon Corzine. Voters have not warmed up to Corzine. He barely tops 40% in the polls and that is consistant with all the polling done in the race going back to the summer. What happened was Christie’s numbers went down because he allowed Jon Corzine to define him. Voters moved from Christie to Daggett. They did not move to Corzine.

Yes, Corzine was able to marshal democratic voters. That got him from like 38% in the polls to 40%. Wow. What a left turn.

Corzine’s Department of Labor Deceives the Public

Author: Rory B. Bellows

National Review online’s Jim Geraghty has a great post up today in his Campaign Spot blog. New Jersey’s Department of labor has been cooking the books in terms of job numbers in order to make Jon the Taxer look better.

When the August numbers were released, they claimed New Jersey had created 13,000 public sector jobs in a month when the US economy lost 263,000. Now these numbers are always revised in following reports because of the model government agnecies use to estimate job creation or job losses. The job creation figure for New Jersey was later revised downward to creating 5,600 jobs.

That is an awfully big deviation. What Geraghty also found out was that every other month begining in April was also revised downward. Cozine is in the fight of his life and the revised job numbers never generate the press the intial numbers create. One might think that the Department of Labor is acting as an arm of the Corzine re-election campaign. This is ironic because the main reason Corzine says Christie should not be governor is because is because he used political influence to benefit himself and his friends.

Why I will (reluctantly) vote for Chris Christie.

Author: Rory B. Bellows

I have been torn during this election cycle over my vote for Governor. Chris Christie has run an awful campaign. Chris Christie is an establishment liberal. A Christie Governorship will do nothing to build a functioning Republican Party in New Jersey. In short, he will be a lesser version of Christie Whitman, who at least had the good sense to listen to her advisors and base her 1993 campaign around a supply-side 30% in 3 year income tax cut.

For conservatives, there is a protest candidate. Jason Cullen is the type of young conservative we need to come through the ranks. However, I cannot pull the lever for Mr. Cullen as much as I may like his governing philosophy and disapprove of Mr. Christie’s. I do not believe a protest vote in this election will accomplish anything.

The Star-Ledger has endorsed Independent Candidate Chris Daggett. Even Pual Mulshine, whose work I respect greatly, has taken a shine to Mr. Daggett. I have no idea why. Daggett is lying when he says his plan does not increase taxes. It does. He is trying to use the newspeak term of “expanding” the sales tax instead of increasing in the sales tax. He can try and spin it any way he wants but the slaes tax will now be applied to more services and goods. That is raising taxes. While some portions of his platform are laudable, imposing caps on municpial, county and school budgets using the CPI and eliminating property tax rebates, Mr. Daggett is still just another tax increaser and as one of the self-described earliest global warming crusaders in the country, we can expect more New Jersey Republican support for destructive policies of cap and tax.

Moreover, Mr. Daggett is every bit as liberal as Mr. Christie. There is no small government tilt in his ideology or campaing platform. The only thing that separates him from Christie is that he has put out a more detailed property tax cut plan. I do not want ot rehash too much, but I will give myself the old Barry Horrowitz pat on the back for previously posting that all Christie had to do was present a property tax cut plan and he would win going away. Chris Daggett has proposed a plan that increases taxes, but because there is some meat to it, everyone, including a leading conservative clolumnist, went ga-ga over it. Daggett’s plan is awful, but it is the only plan out there at the moment.

This leads me back to Chris Christie. Since I have explained why I cannot vote for the other challengers, I will explain why I will vote for Christie. Two words: Barack Obama. Bob McDonnell is going to curb stomp Creigh Deeds in Virgina. Chris Christie winning in New Jersey, regardless of the quality of the candidate and campaign, would send a clear message that ultra-leftist policy agendas practiced by ultra-leftist politicians is out right now. It would send a clear signal to Democrats in Washington that if they wish to pursue government run health care, cap and tax, pro-union legislation and redistribution of wealth policies, they will pay a steep price at the ballot box next November.

Vote to repudiate big government leftism. Vote, you can even hold your nose when you do so, for Chris Christie.

New Poll has Corzine in the Lead

Author: Rory B. Bellows

As I accurately predicted , Jon Corzine has taken the lead in the latest round of polling, The only thing I got wrong would be that voters flocking to Daggett would put Corzine over the top. Daggett is only polling at 4% in this FDU poll. The FDU poll shows Corzine up 44-43 with 8% undecided. This news is courtesy of the

All is not lost but campaigns have natural rythms and once momentum is estbalished, it is almost impossible to regain. The public has decided they want to fire Jon Corzine but Chris Christie has been judged an unacceptable alternative. It is a testament to Corzine’s overall weakness that he is only up 1 point. For Christie to win, he needs a major error by Corzine which is almost impossible because Corzine has spent the entire campaign attacking Christie and not defending his own record or making new policy proposals.

Losing the Unloseable Election

Author: Rory B. Bellows

Watching Thursday night’s debate was maddening. Yes, Chris Christie hammered home the point that Jon Corzine is a serial tax raiser. Good. But that was the end of the good. Christie spent the rest of the night being tag teamed by Corzine and Indepedent candidate Chris Daggett. When Christie was pressed to respond to attacks his response was “They are wrong”. That. Was. It. Christie’s challenge is to present himself as a credible alternative to an electorate that has decided they are willing to fire Jon Corzine. Christie came off as a Bush clone where mindlessly repeated boiler plate slogans and talking points without giving any indication he had any understanding of what he was talking about was the gameplan.

While I normally deplore the media demand to offer solutions, what they mean by solutions is larger, more expensive and more intrusive government, Christie has to show he has a grasp of the issues. When asked what he would do, Christie’s response is a Nixonian secret plan to cut taxes. The answer is simple, affordable housing mandates and school funding need to be reformed. For the life of me, I will never understand why when running against a Governor no one likes because property taxes keep increasing, the Republican in the race will not offer a plan to cut property taxes. Instead, Christie offers an implicit endorsement of the Corzine record on property taxes by insisting he will maintain Jon Corzine’s rebate program.

This debate was such a disaster that even the Wall Street Journal disapproved of his performance. The Journal wrote:

To the extent that Mr. Christie has deigned to discuss taxes at all, it’s usually been to criticize the reform proposals of others. When his primary opponent suggested replacing the state’s graduated income tax—the top marginal rate is nearly 11%—with a 2.98% flat tax, Mr. Christie denounced it as a tax hike on working families, even though the average family would see its annual tax bill decline by $1,000. And this week when Chris Daggett, an independent candidate for Governor, promised a 25% property tax cut for all homeowners and said he’d pay for it by expanding the sales tax, Mr. Christie denounced it as a tax increase.

If Mr. Christie has some better ideas for reducing the tax burden in the Garden State, he might share the details with voters. His Web site mentions property and income tax relief but offers no details. The race has narrowed in part because Mr. Christie is losing supporters to Mr. Daggett, not Governor Corzine. Mr. Daggett’s appeal has grown because he’s offering voters precisely what Mr. Christie isn’t: A specific plan for controlling runaway taxes and spending.

I suspect the next round of polling will show a further deterioration in Christie’s numbers as pissed off voters register their disgust with Corzine by flocking to Daggett. In Thursday’s debate you could tell Christie was worried about Daggett because he attacked him. If Daggett was not drawing votes from Christie, Christie owuld have been falling all over himself to heap proase on this third party interloper. I would wager that the next round of polling will show Jon Corzine in the leade over Chris Christie. Christie has no one else to blame. He is going to lose an election to an incumbant governor with a low 40% approval rating who has presided oer an econbomic collapse in his state. Only in New Jersey could a political party find a way to lose an election in this enviornment.


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