Posts Tagged 'November'

*** New polls in NJ Gov race and NY 23 ***

Author: Rory B. Bellows

Public Policy Polling, a democrat party polling outfit, has new polls in the NJ Gov race and the NY 23 special election that show clear momentum for the Republican and Conservative candidates in those races.

Their NJ Gov poll has Christie 47, Corzine 41 and Daggett at 11.

The NY 23 poll has Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman leading the pack with 51% and Democrat Bill Owens with 34% and liberal Dede Scozzafava, who suspended her campaign and today endorsed owners, bringing up the rear with 13%. In a head to head matchup with Owens, Hoffman curbstomps him 54-38.


Some good news for Christie?

Author: Rory B. Bellows

A new Public Policy Report poll out tomorrow shows daggett’s negatives soaring and the number one reason people will come out to vote is to vote against someone. That can’t be good news for Corzine.

Corzine’s Department of Labor Deceives the Public

Author: Rory B. Bellows

National Review online’s Jim Geraghty has a great post up today in his Campaign Spot blog. New Jersey’s Department of labor has been cooking the books in terms of job numbers in order to make Jon the Taxer look better.

When the August numbers were released, they claimed New Jersey had created 13,000 public sector jobs in a month when the US economy lost 263,000. Now these numbers are always revised in following reports because of the model government agnecies use to estimate job creation or job losses. The job creation figure for New Jersey was later revised downward to creating 5,600 jobs.

That is an awfully big deviation. What Geraghty also found out was that every other month begining in April was also revised downward. Cozine is in the fight of his life and the revised job numbers never generate the press the intial numbers create. One might think that the Department of Labor is acting as an arm of the Corzine re-election campaign. This is ironic because the main reason Corzine says Christie should not be governor is because is because he used political influence to benefit himself and his friends.

The Actual FDU Poll is Even Worse News for Christie

Author: Rory B. Bellows

Last night I posted that The Save Jersey Blog broke the news that the latest FDU Poll would have Corzine in the lead with 44% of the vote.

Well, the actual poll results have been released today and the situation is even more dire. Politico reports that Daggett is polling at 17% and Christie favorable/unfavorable is 38/45. This that the campaign is now between Christie and Daggett. Corzine’s numbers are not moving but Christie’s are droppng and Daggett is on the rise. Maybe today’s edorsement by the second largest environmental group will help Christie capture some Daggett voters. Maybe.

What this means is that Christie is going to have to ignore Corzine and attack Daggett. This diminishes Christie’s stature and only further elevates Daggett. This campaign is now an uphill fight for Christie. I am not sure what he can do to turn the momentum around because the dye is pretty close to being cast.

Major worries for Christie

Author: Rory B. Bellows

As I noted yesterday, Christie has ran an awful campaign and has left the election up to fate. Instead of defining himself he has stayed silent, said nothing and sat on an ever shrinking lead.

Alan Steinberg, former Bush Administration official, sees some ominous signs in the Monmouth Poll. Steingberg shrewdly notices that Corzine actually leads Christie in terms of likely voters by 1 point. While this lead is statistically insignificant, Christie led by 6 points in the last poll. That is a lead that WAS statistically significant.

Corzine has personal wealth and union money to buy the necessary levels of turnout. I have repeatedly warned in this space that Christie was running a dreadful campaign and that the numbers would stabilize once Labor Day rolled around and the Corzine money kicked in. I fear that it is now too late for Christie to do much of anything and he needs to do everything in his power to boost turnout. He needs to have his appointed state party chair hold a vote and have the state GOP accept the national GOP platform. He needs Steve Lonegan out on the stump. And he needs to come up with something, anything, on property taxes in order to rally the troops around.

Christie is still a slight favorite in this election but each day more and more voters are leaving him because he has offered them nothing. Now he is going to have to a win a turnout election where he is at a massive disadvantage in terms of party ID.

Is there a campaign going on?

Author: Rory B. Bellows

You would not know it if you were trying to follow the New Jersey Gubernatorial election and it is starting to hurt Chris Christie in the polls. The latest Monmouth University Poll shows Christie’s lead shrinking fom 14 points in their last survey to 8 points. The poll has Christie at 47%. This is in line with all other recent polls that all show Christie’s lead dwindling and Christie no longer polling at or above the magical 50% mark. Other worrisome signs in this poll are the fact that independents are becoming increasingly skeptical of Christie and that Corzine’s base is begining to rally around him.

The good news for Christie is that Jon Corzine’s highwater mark in any poll taken is 42%. Basically this is the unlosebale election that Chris Christie is doing his damndest to lose. The polls show property taxes are the key issue yet in a recent Christie speech, he declined to say how he would go about cutting taxes or by how much. Campaigns need to be distilled in short slogans that are easy to stick on bumper stickers. If people cannot understand what your campaign is about, they will not for you because they tend to stick with the devil they know as opposed to the devil they do not. A recent example of this was the 2004 John Kerry Campaign or the 2008 McCain Campaign. What were they running on? You knew George Bush was about sticking iwth him because you knew where he stood and Obama had the whole hope and change thing going on. What is the mission statement of the Christie Campaign?

What is frustrating is having to keep writing the same post over and over again. There is nothing to analyze in this campaign because Christie is playing into the Corzine trap of keeping it as the campaign about nothing. All Corzine has to do is raise doubts about his challenger. This strategy is even more effective in a race with a third party. In a state with a huge democrat registration advantage, there is an outlet for disaffected Democrats to register a protest vote. If Corzine can keep Christie’s polling numbers in the mid 40s, anything can happen on election day, especially once the unions and Corzine use their massive resources to get “street” money out there.

It is depressing following this election. if you read any national outlet that covers politics, the only time the NJ Gov. race gets mentioned is when a new poll comes out. On the other hand, their are constant stories about the Bod McDonnell v. Creigh Deeds matchup in the other off year election for Virgina’s Governorship. Part of this is because the Washington Post has decided that Creigh Deeds must be elected at all costs, but whenever the Post runs a story attacking McDonnell for his socially conservative views, McDonnell responds by running an ad or giving a speech about transportation and jobs.

There is still time to correct a deteriorating situation but Christie has been running for Governor for eight or nine months no and no core message has been developed. That means this election is in the hands of voters, who naturally tilt left, who do not like Jon Corzine but have no idea what his challenger stands for.

Of Oscar De La Hoya and Christie Whitman

Author: Rory B. Bellows

I really do not understand what the strategery of the Christie Campaign is at this point. Jon Corzine is out with a new commercial bludgeoning Christie for the infamous $46,000 loan to his subordinate. The goal here is to undercut Christie’s standing as Mr. Law and Order. To date, Corzine’s strategery to bombard Christie with negative attacks is showing some signs of working as the RealClearPolitics polling average show Corzine’s numbers increasing while Christie’s are decreasing. Granted, the movement is not yet substantial but Christie campaign’s message to New Jersey voters is …..

There is no Christie message. Nothing beyond we need to have hope because we can change governors. Wow. How original. That is a compelling message for an electorate that is overwhelmingly Democrat. The Star Ledger’s Paul Mulshine had wrote an outstanding columnwhere he compared the Christie strategy to a boxer who has built up an early round lead on points and wants to avoid any middle of the ring confrontations so his opponent does not have any opportunity to deliver a knockout blow.

Allow me to expand on that. One of the most famous fights of the last ten years was Oscar “The Golden Boy” De La Hoya versus Felix “Tito” Trinidad in September of 1999. Going into the fight, De La Hoya promised to put on a boxing exhibition. De La Hoya dominated the early rounds of the fights but never knocked Trinidad down. Deciding he had put on his exhibition, De La Hoya spent the final four rounds of the fight running around the ring not throwing any punches. Trinidad continued to be the aggressor while De La Hoya was content to dance and sit on what he thought was a safe lead on the Judges scorecards. When the fight ended, the Judges awarded Trinidad a majority decision in large part, because while he never knocked De La Hoya down, he was the fighter who was initiating the action.

There is a lesson here for the Christie Campaign. If you want the Judges, in this case the voters, to award you with a victory, you have to go out and demonstrate why you are the better candidate for the entirety of the fight. While Oscar De La Hoya felt piling up points in the early rounds was enough for victory, the Christie people believed winning the Republican nomination is as non-controversial fashion as possible was enough. They saw Corzine’s disgustingly low poll numbers and felt as long as they could emerge unscathed from the GOP nominating process they could sit on the voters’ discontent with Corzine and cruise to victory.
Corzine does not need to knock Christie out; he just has to make him an unacceptable choice. Corzine is going to keep throwing punches until the final bell and hope his flurries convince an electorate that thinks of itself as sophisticated liberals that they cannot vote for Christie and still tell their friends they are liberals.

Christie has an easy counter punch. He can define himself as the property tax cutter. In 1993, incumbent Democrat Jim Florio also faced an angry electorate after he raised taxes during his first term. The Republicans even took control of the legislature during the 1991midterm elections. Once she secured the nomination, Whitman campaigned on a platform of a 30% reduction in income taxes over the course of three years. Her campaign did not believe it was enough to win the early rounds and hope the voters had the incumbent so much anyone else will do. They knew they had to finish the fight and convince the Judges Whitman should be the winner.

Chris Christie can profit by learning from the examples of Oscar De La Hoya’s fight with Felix Trinidad, and Christie Whitman’s campaign against Jim Florio. One believed that dominating the early stages of the fight constituted an exhibition of overwhelming superiority and the other believed that you must fight to the end and not give anyone a chance to take victory away from you.